At TM3 Wealth, it is important to us that you stay informed about the forces shaping today’s markets. Here’s what we believe deserves your attention this month. If you have any questions or would like to discuss these topics further, please reach out to your advisor.
Investors continue to ride out market turbulence as post-shutdown fallout, conflicting economic data, and renewed speculation over the Fed’s next move fuel ongoing uncertainty and volatility. After months of steady gains, major indices fell sharply in early November. The Nasdaq dropped about 3.4%, losing $1.74 trillion in market value, while the S&P 500 slid 1.55% from late‑October highs. A modest rebound on Friday offered some relief, but the pullback highlighted how lofty valuations and heightened expectations have left markets vulnerable to disappointment. The top 10 S&P 500 stocks now make up 39.4% of the index, the highest concentration on record, raising concerns about market concentration. While AI enthusiasm has fueled mega‑cap tech to new highs, some investors are reassessing whether such valuations are sustainable.
The primary source of anxiety has been the lack of reliable economic data following a record 43-day government shutdown, which disrupted releases from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and other agencies1. The blackout left the Fed, investors, and policymakers in the dark on inflation, employment, and overall economic health2. Market odds of a December rate cut fell from near-certainty in early October to below 50% by mid-November3, as some Fed officials voiced concern over persistent inflation while others pointed to signs of labor market stability4. Core inflation has improved slightly, easing to 3.0% in September from 3.1% in August, but remains above the Fed’s 2% target5.
Looking ahead, several key events in the coming week could shape the trajectory of year-end markets. Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report is expected to be a major catalyst, given its outsized role in AI infrastructure and broader market sentiment6. Investors will also be watching the resumption of delayed government data releases, including the September jobs report, housing starts, and industrial production7,8. These indicators, along with the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s October meeting, may offer the first clear picture of the economy since late summer and provide critical input for December policy expectations.
The bottom line: As the holiday shopping season picks up, retailers report a mix of cautious but resilient consumer behavior. Against this backdrop, markets remain sensitive to whether upcoming data confirms a soft landing or reveals deeper economic strain. With recent volatility raising questions about the durability of the rally, the week ahead may help determine whether this is a brief pause or the beginning of a broader reset.
Sources:
- CNN, https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/14/economy/federal-data-what-to-expect-economic-data
- ABC News, https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/government-release-september-jobs-report-week-ending-data-127539471
- CME Fed Watch Tool, https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
- Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/business/odds-fed-rate-cut-december-knifes-edge-hawks-doves-face-off-2025-11-13/
- Bureau of Labor Statistics, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
- Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/global-markets-global-markets-2025-11-17/
- CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/14/heres-where-things-stand-on-when-the-government-will-start-releasing-key-economic-reports.html
- S&P Global, https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/week-ahead-economic-preview-week-of-17-november-2025.html
Disclosures
The material presented includes information and opinions provided by a party not related to Thrivent Advisor Network. It has been obtained from sources deemed reliable; but no independent verification has been made, nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. The opinions expressed may not necessarily represent those of Thrivent Advisor Network or its affiliates. They are provided solely for information purposes and are not to be construed as solicitations or offers to buy or sell any products, securities, or services. They also do not include all fees or expenses that may be incurred by investing in specific products. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. You cannot invest directly in an index. The opinions expressed are subject to change as subsequent conditions vary. Thrivent Advisor Network and its affiliates accept no liability for loss or damage of any kind arising from the use of this information.
Investment advisory services offered through Thrivent Advisor Network, LLC., a registered investment adviser and a subsidiary of Thrivent. Clients will separately engage a broker-dealer or custodian to safeguard their investment advisory assets. Review the Thrivent Advisor Network ADV Disclosure Brochure and Wrap-Fee Program Brochure for a full description of services, fees, and expenses. Thrivent Advisor Network LLC advisors may also be registered representatives of a broker-dealer to offer securities products.
Any specific securities identified and described do not represent all the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for advisory clients. The reader should not assume that investments in the securities identified and discussed were or will be profitable. A summary description of the principal risks of investing in a particular model is available upon request. There can be no assurance that a model will achieve its investment objectives. Investment strategies employed by the advisor in selecting investments for the model portfolio may not result in an increase in the value of your investment or in overall performance equal to other investments. The model portfolio’s investment objectives may be changed at any time without prior notice. Portfolio allocations are based on a model portfolio, which may not be suitable for all investors. Clients should also consider the transactions costs and/or tax consequences that might result from rebalancing a model portfolio. Frequent rebalancing may incur additional costs and/or tax consequences versus less rebalancing. Please notify us if there have been any changes to your financial situation or your investment objectives, or if you would like to place or modify any reasonable restrictions on the management of your account.
Advisory Persons of Thrivent Advisor Network provide advisory services under a “doing business as” name or may have their own legal business entities. However, advisory services are engaged exclusively through Thrivent Advisor Network, LLC, a registered investment adviser. TM3 Wealth and Thrivent Advisor Network, LLC are not affiliated companies. Information in this message is for the intended recipient[s] only. Please visit our website www.tm3wealth.com for important disclosures.
Securities offered through Thrivent Investment Management Inc. (“TIMI”), member FINRA and SIPC, and a subsidiary of Thrivent, the marketing name for Thrivent Financial for Lutherans. Thrivent.com/disclosures. TIMI and TM3 Wealth are not affiliated companies.
This communication may include forward looking statements. Specific forward-looking statements can be identified by the fact that they do not relate strictly to historical or current facts and include, without limitation, words such as “may,” “will,” “expects,” “believes,” “anticipates,” “plans,” “estimates,” “projects,” “targets,” “forecasts,” “seeks,” “could’” or the negative of such terms or other variations on such terms or comparable terminology. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other factors that are difficult to predict and that could cause actual results to differ materially.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is an agency of the United States Department of Labor. It is the principal fact-finding agency in the broad field of labor economics and statistics and serves as part of the U.S. Federal Statistical System. BLS collects, calculates, analyzes, and publishes data essential to the public, employers, researchers, and government organizations.
The S&P 500® Index, or the Standard & Poor’s 500® Index, is a market-capitalization-weighted index of the 500 largest U.S. publicly traded companies.
The Nasdaq-100 is a stock market index made up of equity securities issued by 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. It is a modified capitalization-weighted index.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.
The CME FedWatch Tool is a tool created by the CME Group (Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group) to act as a barometer for the market’s expectation of potential changes to the fed funds target rate while assessing potential Fed movements around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
